The battle for Clacton…
The latest polls indicate that Douglas Carswell will romp home for UKIP in the by-election that is now being called for Clacton. The Tory right wing have already warned their leaders that any attempt to attack Carswell will be strongly resisted, and to all accounts he has been a popular MP there
I am not concerned here to comment on whether he has been two faced, promising loyalty to Cameron, praising his stance on the EU and a referendum, and then attempting to scupper the party’s chances of re-election next May thus denying the electorate the possibility of a referendum on the EU, which he claimed he wanted, is enough!
Victory for him in Clacton will probably open the flood gates (perhaps I should say sewer sluice gates) for yet more Tory right wingers to defect to UKIP
Defeat next May will result in a huge lurch to the right for the Tories to try and halt the haemorrhaging of supporters to a now rampant UKIP. The probable shift in middle ground of British politics as a result will potentially force Labour to shift rightwards too
If in the meantime the Scots have decided to leave the Union then another election sans Scottish votes will follow within a year, and without their staunch support for Labour, there will be little prospect of a new Labour administration at Westminster. The nightmare prospect of a permanent far right wing government would then not be beyond the bounds of possibility
The rest of the UK need the Scots to save them from this fate! But for them, and Scotland has always been more supportive of the EU, the prospect of UKIP gaining currency in the land will appall them…it may be the golden bullet that Alex Salmond has been seeking
Clacton may prove to be the most significant by-election in years and have a profound impact on all our futures